It's over... or is it?
I’m fairly confident that you have heard one person mention the USA elections in the past week.
Joe Biden has been confirmed (not officially but by news sources) as Presidential-Elect, meaning it is probable he will get the keys to the White House on January 20th.
These elections are followed by many outside of the US - but how does the US Election system work? You may have heard things such as swing states or the electoral college... but what does that actually mean?
There is so much that could be discussed and it couldn’t all be fit into this one blog post but hopefully you will have a better understanding about how this system works and how Joe Biden came to be the 46th President of the United States...
The Primaries
Firstly, the basics: you have to be American-born so that means naturalized citizens don’t count! You also have to be 35 years old. Once elected President you can only serve two terms; each term is four years. That's a maximum of eight years as President. Those two terms don't have to be back-to-back. Trump has lost the 2020 elections but that does not stop him from running in 2024.
The first voting hurdle candidates have to overcome is The Primaries. Each party can elect one candidate. If their is an incumbent President, who can serve another term, they elect that candidate. If there is no such person, the party vote in the Primaries for who will represent them.
The Primaries happen in the two main parties: the Republicans (right-wing) and the Democrats (left-wing). There are lots of other parties and candidates (like Kanye West) can run independently too, but no one like this has held office since 1865.
One key steps of applying to be a candidate in the primaries, is forming an exploratory committee. This is group of people who help decide whether the individual should run for office. Forming a committee does not mean they are an official candidate although it most often leads to candidacy. Then candidates debate, lay out manifestos and campaign to win votes.
Voting happens on a set date, for each states; voting in the primaries can either be open or closed. An open vote means everyone, even if they aren’t part of the party can vote. A closed vote means only people who are registered to the party can choose.
Here’s where it could get confusing. There are two types of voting systems using in The Primaries: primaries and caucuses. Primaries involve voters writing their preferred candidate on a ballot paper - simple. Caucuses happen in place of primaries. Voters choose a candidate, but if that candidate has less than 15% share of the vote they are dismissed and voters have to choose another candidate. Caucuses happen in states such as Iowa, Texas, Colorado and Nevada.
So, the vote is then done state by state. Both Republican and Democrat Primaries start with the Iowa Caucus but finish with different states. There are also days such as Super Tuesday, where several states hold their primaries on the same day.
Each state has a different number of delegate votes and candidates can win a number of those as long as they have more than 15% support. The candidate who passes the delegate magic number (in 2020 it was 1,991 delegates) wins the nomination from the party.
Party Conventions
Both the Republic and Democrat parties have large political conventions. This is where the party formally announce who will be running for president. Usually, other key political figures speak at the convention. These could include the speaker of the house, senate majority leaders, former presidents, congressmen/congresswomen and candidates from the primaries.
Funding
Running for President is reallllyyyyy expensive... like REALLLLYYYYYYYYYYY expensive.
In 2016, (a normal, non-coronavirus election) both campaigns totalled $6.5 billion , that is the nearly the same as the entire GDP for Switzerland or Argentina. Yet, restrictions have been put in place. An individual cannot donate more than $2,800 to a candidate. If a candidate is funded solely by individual donations it is called a grassroots movement. But this rarely happens.
Most candidates also have behind-the-doors pitches to companies and wealthy businessmen/businesswomen, telling them they will be better off if they were president. Some candidates are trying to steer away from this as it can lead to corruption. If key people donate large sums they can offer ask for a stake in running the country, even if they are unqualified. This happened with Betsy Devos, Secretary of Education, who raised $14 million for Donald Trump but has never taught a class in her life.
You also have Super PACS. These were set up to dodge the restrictions on donation limits. Technically, it is an organization in its own right and they are not tied to a candidate (although they unofficially they are). Super PACS have no limits into how much they can raise. They can be funded by individuals, companies, unions, government...basically anyone.
The final race
So you've got your party nomination and lots of money, what now? Well, all you have to do is secure 270 electoral college points, easy right?
Well first of all, what is the electoral college? The electoral college is the number on congressmen/congresswoman each state has. And Congress is made up of two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The House of Representative has a number, based on a states' population. When it was introduced, each Representative served around 100,000 in a District. But population increase along with no amendments to the constitution means each Representative now serves around 750,000 people. Some states have larger populations and have more Representatives, California has 53, Montana has 1. The Senate balances the House of Representatives. It gives smaller states, such as Montana more power. Each state has two representatives in the Senate - here, each state is equal.
When it comes to the election, some states, historically, always vote the same. California, New York, Washington (state), are always blue (Democrats). Texas, Alabama, Tennessee are always red (Republican). Then you have Swing States, these are states who, historically, could vote either way, such as Florida, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan. You often see that candidates focus their campaign time in these states, because these can swing the election in their favor.
The electoral system is important because it enforces the political idea that each State is independent and superior than the collective vision of the country. But there is a flaw...
States give all their electoral college points to the candidates who wins a majority within their state. This year, California went blue and gave all 55 points to Joe Biden. Yet, 4.5 million people voted for Trump in California, that's more than all the Trump supporters in: Utah, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Arkansas combined.
Then there's gerrymandering: the process where the incumbent party can redraw the borders for each District. I would really recommend you watch this video because it explains it well. But in principal, the district borders can be redrawn so that people who vote one way are grouped together. This is at a disadvantage to that party; a high concentration in one district means that they win by a landslide by only get one seat. This is how Trump won the election in 2016, he didn't win the popular vote, but gerrymandering meant that more Districts voted Republican and more Republican Districts, swung the whole State Red.
THE INAUGURATION
So at last you're the president-elect. You will then have to take an oath of office and be sworn in at Midday on January 20th. It is tradition that all living presidents, vice-presidents, first-lady and second-lady all attend the ceremony. The peaceful transition of power is hugely fundamental to the American democracy and establishes a level of decency. After that you've got the keys to the office of one the most powerful positions in the world...
There's much I did not discuss in this blog. I could have talked about the role of the first-lady, the concession speech, the supreme court and how people in Washington DC don't even get a say in Congress (but do get 3 electoral votes). I would recommend learning about all of that, but hopefully you now have a better understanding of how the race to the White House works.
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